Iowa Farmers Were Already Vulnerable. Then Came the Trade War.

It was time for Beau Hanson to lay down his bets.

Like other farmers in western Iowa, in early April Mr. Hanson was preparing for spring planting. The decisions he made then could determine whether he would be in the red or the black come fall harvest.

In farming, there are always uncertainties, and all around Monona County, where Mr. Hanson lives, farmers are weighing them. It has been a tough few years. A wet spring in 2024 meant some farmers had to replant three times. This year, it’s too dry. The price of soybeans has been going down, while the cost of seed and fertilizer has remained high, as have the interest rates on the loans that farmers take out to buy those things. Rates have reached 9 percent, more than double what they were three years ago.

And now, there is an extra variable: a trade war.

The 145 percent tariff that President Trump imposed on Chinese imports in April was met with a retaliatory 125 percent tax on U.S. goods going into China. In practice, that means a hefty tax on Midwestern crops. China is the largest importer of U.S. soybeans, buying some $12.8 billion worth last year. The new tariffs, along with various taxes, bring the effective tariff for the crop to 155 percent, according to the American Soybean Association.

Even before Mr. Trump set off the current tariff war, some farmers in Iowa were looking at the possibility of a third consecutive year of losses. Everything is slowing down. Lenders are becoming more cautious. Machinery and heavy equipment sellers feel the mood shift, too, as farmers eke out another year from aging tractors, planters and other big machinery, rather than buy new ones.

“Every year is uncertain,” Mr. Hanson said. “But this year, it’s especially tough.”

Beau Hanson farms 700 acres near where he grew up in Monona County, Iowa.Credit…KC McGinnis for The New York Times

Mr. Hanson grew up in Castana, Iowa, and played football at the local high school. After attending Iowa Central Community College, where he was an offensive lineman, Mr. Hanson, 35, returned home and bought the farm next to the house he grew up in. Unlike many of his peers who left farm life for jobs in bigger cities, he is trying to build his future on the fertile soil tilled by four generations of his family.