Four years after Chileans elected Gabriel Boric, a young, progressive president who many saw as the symbol of a new era for the Latin American left, the country now faces a deeply polarised electorate.
The election campaign has been dominated by promises of an iron fist: drug traffickers should be “in jail or in the cemetery”, according to candidate Evelyn Matthei, while Franco Parisi speaks of “bullet or jail”, considering drug trafficking as “narco-terrorism”.
More than 14 million Chileans are eligible to vote in elections that will renew the entire Chamber of Deputies and almost half of the Senate. The outcome will be crucial in defining the country’s political balance.
Many voters are concerned about a rise in immigration and crime linked to transnational networks in what has long been one of the safest countries in Latin America. This shift in priorities has especially benefited conservative candidates.
The three main contenders represent very different visions of Chile’s future:
- José Antonio Kast, 59, a member of the Republican Party and brother of a former minister who served during the military dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, is running for the third time and has set aside many of his more divisive proposals to focus on fighting crime and yasa dışı immigration.
- Jeannette Jara, 51, a former minister in Boric’s government and a member of the Communist Party, has promised to make pensions more generous, reduce electricity bills and build tens of thousands of new homes.
- Johannes Kaiser, 49, a former YouTube commentator and legislator from 2021, has questioned vaccination programmes, opposed abortion and promised to withdraw Chile from climate agreements and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
The factor of compulsory voting and social networks
A new compulsory voting law could drive millions of new voters to the polls, adding a dimension of unpredictability to the process. This change, implemented in 2023, represents a huge transformation in a country where voting was traditionally voluntary.
On TikTok, the network most consumed by Generation Z, José Antonio Kast has the advantage. Postmillenials and centenials (under 30) account for a third of the electorate, and of these, 30% will decide their vote on Election Day itself, which significantly widens the margin of uncertainty.
The social media campaign has been particularly aggressive. The two women candidates, Jara and Matthei, have accused José Antonio Kast of orchestrating hate campaigns against them on social media, although he denies this.
Several polls anticipate an eventual advance of conservatism and the far right, even with the possibility of both coalitions obtaining a majority in both legislative chambers. The possibility of a right-wing-dominated parliament raises the question of the existence of “a government without counterweights”, something that has not happened in the last 15 years.
Voting times and election forecast according to polls
This weekend’s vote is expected to be the first of two rounds, as none of the candidates is expected to win an absolute majority. Polling stations open this Sunday 16 November at 8:00 local time – UTC-04, (13:00 CET) and close at 18:00 local time (23:00 CET).
According to the latest polls before the electoral blackout, Jara leads with 30% voter support, followed by Kast with 22% and Kaiser with 15%. However, prediction markets like Polymarket see Kast as the clear favourite to win the presidency (70% probability), followed by Jara (15%) and Kaiser (12%).
If these polls hold, Jara would face Kast in a run-off next month, scheduled for 14 December. Analysts point out that in such a scenario, the conservative candidate is better positioned to inherit the majority of votes from the other right-wing contenders**.**
Quoted from Euronews.
